Holloway to win by KO/TKO? leads at 70%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holloway to win by KO/TKO? | 70% | +43% | $40 |
| 2 | Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor | 68% | +48% | $97K |
| 3 | Fight won by KO/TKO? | 57% | +75% | $2 |
| 4 | O/U 1.5 Rounds | 51% | +96% | - |
| 5 | O/U 0.5 Rounds | 50% | +98% | $5 |
| 6 | O/U 2.5 Rounds | 48% | +108% | $6 |
| 7 | O/U 3.5 Rounds | 44% | +125% | - |
| 8 | O/U 4.5 Rounds | 40% | +147% | - |
| 9 | McGregor to win by KO/TKO? | 37% | +170% | $109 |
| 10 | Fight to Go the Distance? | 29% | +245% | $50 |
| 11 | Fight won by submission? BEST VALUE | 26% | +277% | $2 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Max Holloway" if Max Holloway is officially declared the winner of the fight against Conor McGregor at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026. It w...
This prediction market tracks whether UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) will occur, with $98K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
Traders lean toward Holloway to win by KO/TKO? at 70%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $21K traded in the last 24 hours alone (21% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-12. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 15, 2026 at 19:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Holloway to win by KO/TKO? at 70% probability, with $98K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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