The market strongly favors O/U 0.5 Rounds at 92%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O/U 0.5 Rounds | 92% | +9% | - |
| 2 | O/U 1.5 Rounds | 78% | +27% | - |
| 3 | O/U 2.5 Rounds | 65% | +54% | - |
| 4 | Ends before Round 5? | 55% | +83% | - |
| 5 | Mike Malott vs. Joaquin Buckley | 54% | +87% | $102K |
| 6 | Fight won by KO/TKO? | 50% | +98% | $115 |
| 7 | O/U 3.5 Rounds | 48% | +106% | $1K |
| 8 | O/U 4.5 Rounds | 42% | +141% | - |
| 9 | Ends before Round 4? | 41% | +144% | - |
| 10 | Fight won by decision? | 35% | +186% | - |
| 11 | Decision or Draw | 35% | +186% | - |
| 12 | Fight to Go the Distance? | 34% | +194% | $54 |
| 13 | Buckley to win by KO/TKO? | 30% | +228% | $468 |
| 14 | Ends before Round 3? | 28% | +251% | - |
| 15 | Malott to win by KO/TKO? | 19% | +426% | - |
| 16 | Fight won by submission? | 15% | +567% | - |
| 17 | Ends before Round 2? | 15% | +567% | - |
| 18 | Buckley in Round 4 | 9% | +1011% | $208 |
| 19 | Malott in Round 1 BEST VALUE | 8% | +1076% | - |
| 20 | Buckley in Round 3 | 8% | +1076% | $250 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Mike Malott" if Mike Malott is officially declared the winner of the fight against Joaquin Buckley at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, scheduled for October 17, 2026....
This prediction market tracks whether UFC Fight Night: Mike Malott vs. Joaquin Buckley (Welterweight, Main Card) will occur, with $105K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market shows strong consensus: O/U 0.5 Rounds is priced at 92%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $90K traded in the last 24 hours alone (85% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-18. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 17, 2026 at 17:25 UTC, the leading outcome is O/U 0.5 Rounds at 92% probability, with $105K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $105K, with $90K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms