Ends before Round 3? leads at 82%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ends before Round 3? | 82% | +23% | - |
| 2 | Fight won by KO/TKO? | 65% | +54% | $334 |
| 3 | O/U 0.5 Rounds | 64% | +55% | - |
| 4 | Ends before Round 2? | 58% | +72% | $2 |
| 5 | Nallo to win by KO/TKO? | 53% | +89% | $3K |
| 6 | Nallo in Round 1 | 46% | +115% | - |
| 7 | O/U 1.5 Rounds | 36% | +182% | $215 |
| 8 | Nate Landwehr vs. Mandel Nallo | 28% | +264% | $31K |
| 9 | Fight won by submission? | 21% | +376% | $5 |
| 10 | O/U 2.5 Rounds | 18% | +456% | - |
| 11 | Nallo in Round 2 | 14% | +590% | - |
| 12 | Fight to Go the Distance? | 14% | +641% | - |
| 13 | Landwehr to win by KO/TKO? | 14% | +641% | - |
| 14 | Fight won by decision? | 12% | +700% | - |
| 15 | Decision or Draw | 12% | +700% | - |
| 16 | Landwehr in Round 1 | 12% | +770% | - |
| 17 | Landwehr in Round 2 BEST VALUE | 10% | +953% | - |
| 18 | Landwehr in Round 3 | 4% | +2717% | - |
| 19 | Nallo in Round 3 | 4% | +2717% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Nate Landwehr" if Nate Landwehr is officially declared the winner of the fight against Mandel Nallo at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, scheduled for October 17, 2026....
This prediction market tracks whether UFC Fight Night: Nate Landwehr vs. Mandel Nallo (Lightweight, Main Card) will occur, with $33K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
Traders lean toward Ends before Round 3? at 82%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $28K traded in the last 24 hours alone (84% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-18. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 17, 2026 at 22:55 UTC, the leading outcome is Ends before Round 3? at 82% probability, with $33K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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