O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 74%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O/U 0.5 Rounds | 74% | +34% | $2K |
| 2 | Ends before Round 3? | 68% | +46% | - |
| 3 | Fight won by KO/TKO? | 57% | +75% | $8 |
| 4 | O/U 1.5 Rounds | 46% | +115% | $585 |
| 5 | Ends before Round 2? | 44% | +127% | - |
| 6 | Smith to win by KO/TKO? | 42% | +141% | $10 |
| 7 | Smith in Round 1 | 32% | +208% | - |
| 8 | Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith | 30% | +239% | $24K |
| 9 | O/U 2.5 Rounds | 30% | +239% | - |
| 10 | Fight won by submission? | 22% | +355% | - |
| 11 | Fight won by decision? | 22% | +355% | - |
| 12 | Decision or Draw | 22% | +355% | $6 |
| 13 | Fight to Go the Distance? | 20% | +388% | $173 |
| 14 | Brown to win by KO/TKO? | 18% | +441% | - |
| 15 | Smith in Round 2 | 16% | +506% | - |
| 16 | Brown in Round 1 | 12% | +770% | - |
| 17 | Brown in Round 2 | 8% | +1076% | - |
| 18 | Smith in Round 3 | 8% | +1233% | $3K |
| 19 | Brown in Round 3 BEST VALUE | 6% | +1718% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Randy Brown" if Randy Brown is officially declared the winner of the fight against Jacobe Smith at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026. It...
This prediction market tracks whether UFC Fight Night: Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith (Welterweight, Main Card) will occur, with $30K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
Traders lean toward O/U 0.5 Rounds at 74%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $26K traded in the last 24 hours alone (86% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 31, 2026 at 16:45 UTC, the leading outcome is O/U 0.5 Rounds at 74% probability, with $30K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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