The market strongly favors O/U 0.5 Rounds at 86%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O/U 0.5 Rounds | 86% | +17% | $52 |
| 2 | Ends before Round 5? | 68% | +46% | - |
| 3 | O/U 1.5 Rounds | 65% | +54% | $60 |
| 4 | Ends before Round 4? | 64% | +55% | - |
| 5 | Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan | 54% | +87% | $76K |
| 6 | Ends before Round 3? | 48% | +106% | - |
| 7 | O/U 2.5 Rounds | 43% | +133% | $440 |
| 8 | Fight won by submission? | 38% | +163% | - |
| 9 | Fight won by KO/TKO? | 38% | +167% | - |
| 10 | O/U 3.5 Rounds | 34% | +194% | - |
| 11 | O/U 4.5 Rounds | 28% | +251% | $5 |
| 12 | Ends before Round 2? | 28% | +251% | $18 |
| 13 | Nolan to win by KO/TKO? | 28% | +264% | $22 |
| 14 | Fight won by decision? | 24% | +308% | $14 |
| 15 | Decision or Draw | 24% | +308% | - |
| 16 | Fight to Go the Distance? | 24% | +317% | $490 |
| 17 | Moicano in Round 1 | 14% | +590% | - |
| 18 | Moicano in Round 2 | 12% | +700% | - |
| 19 | Nolan in Round 1 | 12% | +770% | - |
| 20 | Moicano to win by KO/TKO? BEST VALUE | 10% | +852% | $7 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Renato Moicano" if Renato Moicano is officially declared the winner of the fight against Tom Nolan at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026....
This prediction market tracks whether UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card) will occur, with $77K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market shows strong consensus: O/U 0.5 Rounds is priced at 86%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $53K traded in the last 24 hours alone (69% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 01, 2026 at 00:35 UTC, the leading outcome is O/U 0.5 Rounds at 86% probability, with $77K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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