The market strongly favors O/U 0.5 Rounds at 90%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O/U 0.5 Rounds | 90% | +10% | - |
| 2 | O/U 1.5 Rounds | 74% | +34% | - |
| 3 | O/U 2.5 Rounds | 64% | +56% | $2K |
| 4 | Fight to Go the Distance? | 58% | +72% | $50 |
| 5 | Fight won by decision? | 57% | +74% | - |
| 6 | Decision or Draw | 57% | +74% | - |
| 7 | Ends before Round 3? | 33% | +203% | $11 |
| 8 | Ricky Simon vs. Montel Jackson | 32% | +208% | $21K |
| 9 | Fight won by KO/TKO? | 28% | +257% | - |
| 10 | Jackson to win by KO/TKO? | 28% | +264% | - |
| 11 | Ends before Round 2? | 19% | +426% | - |
| 12 | Jackson in Round 1 | 15% | +567% | - |
| 13 | Fight won by submission? | 13% | +669% | - |
| 14 | Jackson in Round 2 | 13% | +669% | - |
| 15 | Simon to win by KO/TKO? | 12% | +733% | - |
| 16 | Jackson in Round 3 | 10% | +852% | $10 |
| 17 | Simon in Round 1 | 10% | +953% | - |
| 18 | Simon in Round 2 | 9% | +1011% | - |
| 19 | Simon in Round 3 BEST VALUE | 8% | +1076% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Ricky Simon" if Ricky Simon is officially declared the winner of the fight against Montel Jackson at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, scheduled for September 26, 2...
This prediction market tracks whether UFC Fight Night: Ricky Simon vs. Montel Jackson (Bantamweight, Prelims) will occur, with $23K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market shows strong consensus: O/U 0.5 Rounds is priced at 90%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $18K traded in the last 24 hours alone (76% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-27. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 26, 2026 at 20:15 UTC, the leading outcome is O/U 0.5 Rounds at 90% probability, with $23K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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