The market strongly favors O/U 0.5 Rounds at 93%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O/U 0.5 Rounds | 93% | +8% | - |
| 2 | O/U 1.5 Rounds | 81% | +23% | - |
| 3 | O/U 2.5 Rounds | 71% | +41% | $835 |
| 4 | Fight to Go the Distance? | 69% | +45% | - |
| 5 | Fight won by decision? | 68% | +46% | - |
| 6 | Decision or Draw | 68% | +46% | - |
| 7 | Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya | 66% | +53% | $22K |
| 8 | Ends before Round 3? | 24% | +317% | - |
| 9 | Fight won by KO/TKO? | 16% | +525% | - |
| 10 | Ends before Round 2? | 15% | +567% | $1K |
| 11 | Machado to win by KO/TKO? | 12% | +770% | - |
| 12 | Machado in Round 1 | 11% | +809% | - |
| 13 | Machado in Round 2 | 10% | +852% | - |
| 14 | Machado in Round 3 | 10% | +953% | - |
| 15 | Amaya in Round 1 | 9% | +1011% | - |
| 16 | Fight won by submission? | 8% | +1076% | - |
| 17 | Amaya in Round 2 | 8% | +1076% | - |
| 18 | Amaya in Round 3 | 8% | +1150% | - |
| 19 | Amaya to win by KO/TKO? BEST VALUE | 6% | +1438% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Valesca Machado" if Valesca Machado is officially declared the winner of the fight against Melissa Amaya at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, scheduled for Septembe...
This prediction market tracks whether UFC Fight Night: Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya (Women's Strawweight, Main Card) will occur, with $24K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market shows strong consensus: O/U 0.5 Rounds is priced at 93%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $24K traded in the last 24 hours alone (98% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-27. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 26, 2026 at 16:05 UTC, the leading outcome is O/U 0.5 Rounds at 93% probability, with $24K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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