Market is split — Carlos Alcaraz at 44%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Alcaraz | 44% | +125% | $520 |
| 2 | Novak Djokovic | 34% | +190% | $24 |
| 3 | Alexander Zverev | 33% | +203% | $104 |
| 4 | Rafael Jodar | 14% | +614% | $2K |
| 5 | Ben Shelton | 14% | +641% | $23 |
| 6 | Taylor Fritz | 12% | +770% | $22 |
| 7 | Arthur Fils | 12% | +770% | $143 |
| 8 | Daniil Medvedev | 8% | +1076% | - |
| 9 | Jakub Mensik | 6% | +1567% | $636 |
| 10 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 6% | +1718% | - |
| 11 | Alexander Bublik BEST VALUE | 5% | +1900% | $42 |
| 12 | Alex de Minaur | 5% | +2098% | $390 |
| 13 | Flavio Cobolli | 4% | +2122% | $21 |
| 14 | Lorenzo Musetti | 4% | +2122% | - |
| 15 | Brandon Nakashima | 4% | +2122% | $671 |
| 16 | Jiri Lehecka | 4% | +2122% | $21 |
| 17 | Casper Ruud | 4% | +2122% | $666 |
| 18 | Frances Tiafoe | 4% | +2400% | - |
| 19 | Andrey Rublev | 4% | +2717% | $234 |
| 20 | Tommy Paul | 4% | +2757% | $28 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player clinches a spot in the Final at the 2026 US Open per US Open rules. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it be...
This prediction market tracks whether US Open 2026: To Reach the Final (Men's Singles) will occur, with $15K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market is closely contested, with Carlos Alcaraz leading at just 44%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-12. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 26, 2026 at 01:15 UTC, the leading outcome is Carlos Alcaraz at 44% probability, with $15K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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