The market strongly favors Celeste Maloy at 88%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celeste Maloy | 88% | +14% | $17K |
| 2 | Candidate B | 50% | +100% | - |
| 3 | Candidate G | 50% | +100% | - |
| 4 | Candidate J | 50% | +100% | - |
| 5 | Candidate C | 50% | +100% | - |
| 6 | Other | 50% | +100% | - |
| 7 | Candidate F | 50% | +100% | - |
| 8 | Candidate H | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | Candidate A | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | Candidate D | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | Candidate E | 50% | +100% | - |
| 12 | Candidate I | 50% | +100% | - |
| 13 | Phil Lyman BEST VALUE | 11% | +813% | $8K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the UT-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 m...
This prediction market tracks whether UT-03 Republican Primary Winner will occur, with $25K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market shows strong consensus: Celeste Maloy is priced at 88%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $23K traded in the last 24 hours alone (93% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-06-24. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 17, 2026 at 13:15 UTC, the leading outcome is Celeste Maloy at 88% probability, with $25K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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