The market strongly favors $100M at 99%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
High Volume — $3.1M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $100M | 99% | +1% | $81K |
| 2 | $200M | 97% | +3% | $76K |
| 3 | $300M | 92% | +9% | $268K |
| 4 | $500M | 84% | +20% | $950K |
| 5 | $800M | 70% | +42% | $461K |
| 6 | $1B | 60% | +68% | $618K |
| 7 | $2B | 33% | +205% | $309K |
| 8 | $3B | 14% | +612% | $123K |
| 9 | $4B BEST VALUE | 5% | +1769% | $161K |
| 10 | $5B | 4% | +2147% | $90K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resol...
This prediction market tracks whether Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch? will occur, with $3.1M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by cryptocurrency market dynamics, regulatory developments, and on-chain sentiment.
The market shows strong consensus: $100M is priced at 99%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
The market has seen $18K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2028-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 02, 2026 at 00:05 UTC, the leading outcome is $100M at 99% probability, with $3.1M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $3.1M, with $18K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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