Very strong leads at 63%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Very strong | 63% | +59% | $308 |
| 2 | Violent | 24% | +326% | $547 |
| 3 | Strong BEST VALUE | 17% | +488% | $242 |
| 4 | Severe tropical storm or weaker | 3% | +3674% | $14K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Choi-wan. Peak intensity means the highest intensity class the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns to Choi-wan in an analysis publishe...
This prediction market tracks whether How strong will Choi-wan be? will occur, with $15K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
Traders lean toward Very strong at 63%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-16. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 02, 2026 at 18:15 UTC, the leading outcome is Very strong at 63% probability, with $15K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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