The market strongly favors Iran / Iranian at 99%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iran / Iranian | 99% | +1% | $770 |
| 2 | Venezuela / Maduro | 76% | +31% | $21 |
| 3 | Trump 3+ times | 61% | +63% | $3K |
| 4 | Oil / Gas / Gasoline | 54% | +85% | $753 |
| 5 | AI / Artificial Intelligence | 52% | +94% | - |
| 6 | Israel / Israeli | 51% | +96% | $2K |
| 7 | NATO | 51% | +96% | - |
| 8 | Ceasefire | 51% | +96% | $1K |
| 9 | Tariff | 50% | +102% | $10 |
| 10 | Nuclear | 48% | +108% | $1K |
| 11 | Democrat | 44% | +127% | $2K |
| 12 | Meme | 38% | +167% | $12 |
| 13 | JD / Vance BEST VALUE | 29% | +245% | $1K |
| 14 | -No Qualifying Event- | 4% | +2122% | $15 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Marco Rubio is scheduled to appear on Fox News: My View on August 1 at 9:00 PM ET (https://x.com/MyViewFNC/status/2082912630755201288?s=46&t=KIQP6O7wzTwc0Obf_fs9_g). This market will resolve to "Yes"...
This prediction market tracks whether What will Marco Rubio say on Fox News: My View? will occur, with $13K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Iran / Iranian is priced at 99%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-02. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 31, 2026 at 23:35 UTC, the leading outcome is Iran / Iranian at 99% probability, with $13K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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