Market is split — <$419K at 50%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | <$419K | 50% | +98% | $14K |
| 2 | $419K - $426K | 27% | +268% | $9K |
| 3 | $426K - $433K BEST VALUE | 16% | +512% | $5K |
| 4 | $433K - $440K | 2% | +4445% | $12K |
| 5 | $440K - $447K | 1% | +16567% | $3K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this mark...
This prediction market tracks whether What will the median home value in the US be on September 30? will occur, with $47K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by macroeconomic indicators, central bank signals, and market expectations.
The market is closely contested, with <$419K leading at just 50%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours alone (28% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 07, 2026 at 02:15 UTC, the leading outcome is <$419K at 50% probability, with $47K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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