The market strongly favors Simu Liu as Shang-Chi at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simu Liu as Shang-Chi | 100% | - | $3K |
| 2 | Hayley Atwell as Peggy Carter | 100% | - | $386 |
| 3 | Kathryn Newton as Cassie Lang | 100% | - | $4K |
| 4 | Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man | 90% | +10% | $11K |
| 5 | Hugh Jackman as Wolverine | 88% | +14% | $10K |
| 6 | Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool | 88% | +14% | $7K |
| 7 | Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange | 82% | +22% | $5K |
| 8 | Benedict Wong as Wong | 66% | +50% | $5K |
| 9 | Teyonah Parris as Monica Rambeau | 66% | +50% | $4K |
| 10 | Iman Vellani as Ms. Marvel | 51% | +96% | $3K |
| 11 | Tom Holland as Spider-Man | 50% | +102% | $8K |
| 12 | Gwyneth Paltrow as Pepper Potts | 49% | +104% | $1K |
| 13 | Hailee Steinfeld as Kate Bishop | 47% | +113% | $2K |
| 14 | Xochitl Gomez as America Chavez | 46% | +120% | $1K |
| 15 | Elizabeth Olsen as Scarlet Witch | 45% | +122% | $24 |
| 16 | Brie Larson as Captain Marvel | 42% | +135% | $12K |
| 17 | Don Cheadle as James Rhodes / War Machine | 26% | +277% | $4K |
| 18 | Mark Ruffalo as Hulk | 24% | +317% | $5K |
| 19 | Halle Berry as Storm | 22% | +355% | $3K |
| 20 | Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan BEST VALUE | 19% | +426% | $6K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Avengers: Doomsday is a Marvel film scheduled to release on December, 18, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor playing the listed character appears in Avengers: Doomsday. Other...
This prediction market tracks whether Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday? will occur, with $115K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by social media trends, industry insider signals, and historical patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Simu Liu as Shang-Chi is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Recent trading volume of $14K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-18. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 07, 2026 at 11:15 UTC, the leading outcome is Simu Liu as Shang-Chi at 100% probability, with $115K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $115K, with $14K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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