No clear favorite. Austin, TX leads at just 5%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin, TX BEST VALUE | 5% | +1900% | $301 |
| 2 | Oklahoma City, OK | 4% | +2432% | $391 |
| 3 | Columbus, OH | 3% | +2799% | $1K |
| 4 | Wichita, KS | 3% | +2799% | $1K |
| 5 | Des Moines, IA | 3% | +2799% | $599 |
| 6 | Fort Worth, TX | 3% | +3233% | $360 |
| 7 | San Antonio, TX | 3% | +3290% | $1K |
| 8 | Louisville, KY | 3% | +3290% | $1K |
| 9 | Kansas City, MO | 3% | +3290% | $246 |
| 10 | Nashville, TN | 3% | +3409% | $1K |
| 11 | Charlotte, NC | 3% | +3604% | $1K |
| 12 | Dallas, TX | 2% | +3982% | $259 |
| 13 | Memphis, TN | 2% | +3982% | $783 |
| 14 | Tampa, FL | 2% | +4551% | $684 |
| 15 | Minneapolis, MN | 2% | +5028% | $378 |
| 16 | Houston, TX | 2% | +5163% | $457 |
| 17 | New Orleans, LA | 2% | +5305% | $318 |
| 18 | St. Louis, MO | 2% | +6352% | $303 |
| 19 | Atlanta, GA | 1% | +7307% | $388 |
| 20 | Little Rock, AR | 1% | +8596% | $316 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that falls within a tornado probability area rated ≥2% in the NOAA Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook on August 23, 2026. Otherwise...
This prediction market tracks whether Which cities face tornado risk on August 23? will occur, with $14K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
No clear favorite has emerged — Austin, TX leads at only 5% across 20 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $14K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-24. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 24, 2026 at 06:55 UTC, the leading outcome is Austin, TX at 5% probability, with $14K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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