This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthropic | 100% | $258K |
| 2 | OpenAI | 28% | $338K |
| 3 | xAI | 15% | $538K |
| 4 | Alibaba | 10% | $5K |
| 5 | DeepSeek | 7% | $223K |
| 6 | Meta | 6% | $13K |
| 7 | Mistral | 6% | $6K |
| 8 | Z.ai | 6% | $4K |
| 9 | Baidu | 4% | $2K |
| 10 | Nvidia | 4% | $6K |
| 11 | Meituan | 3% | $3K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 30, 2026 at 18:48 UTC, the leading outcome is Anthropic at 100% probability, with $1.4M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $1.4M, with $43K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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