Anthropic leads at 66%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthropic | 66% | +50% | $67K |
| 2 | OpenAI | 12% | +770% | $50K |
| 3 | xAI | 9% | +987% | $43K |
| 4 | Google BEST VALUE | 6% | +1718% | $34K |
| 5 | DeepSeek | 3% | +3604% | $46K |
| 6 | Moonshot | 2% | +4551% | $47K |
| 7 | Alibaba | 2% | +5782% | $41K |
| 8 | Meta | 2% | +6352% | $40K |
| 9 | Z.ai | 1% | +11011% | $38K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Lead...
This prediction market tracks whether Which company has best AI model end of 2026? will occur, with $615K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
Traders lean toward Anthropic at 66%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
The market has seen $27K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 13, 2026 at 04:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Anthropic at 66% probability, with $615K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $615K, with $27K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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