The market strongly favors Anthropic at 85%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthropic | 85% | +18% | $15K |
| 2 | Other | 50% | +100% | - |
| 3 | Company A | 50% | +100% | - |
| 4 | Company B | 50% | +100% | - |
| 5 | Company C | 50% | +100% | - |
| 6 | Company D | 50% | +100% | - |
| 7 | Company E | 50% | +100% | - |
| 8 | Company F | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | Company G | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | Company H | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | Company I | 50% | +100% | - |
| 12 | Company J | 50% | +100% | - |
| 13 | Company K | 50% | +100% | - |
| 14 | Company L | 50% | +100% | - |
| 15 | Company M | 50% | +100% | - |
| 16 | Google BEST VALUE | 15% | +567% | $8K |
| 17 | OpenAI | 2% | +5028% | $5K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on A...
This prediction market tracks whether Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of August? will occur, with $47K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market shows strong consensus: Anthropic is priced at 85%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours alone (32% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 04, 2026 at 00:55 UTC, the leading outcome is Anthropic at 85% probability, with $47K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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