The market strongly favors Uganda at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uganda | 100% | - | $2K |
| 2 | Kenya | 100% | +0% | $19K |
| 3 | Nigeria | 48% | +111% | $25 |
| 4 | South Sudan | 42% | +141% | $5K |
| 5 | Rwanda | 26% | +277% | $3K |
| 6 | Republic of the Congo | 25% | +300% | $15K |
| 7 | India | 21% | +376% | $850 |
| 8 | Somalia | 15% | +567% | $339 |
| 9 | Burundi | 14% | +590% | $313 |
| 10 | Canada | 12% | +733% | $3K |
| 11 | United States | 11% | +809% | $11K |
| 12 | China | 10% | +953% | $4K |
| 13 | Ethiopia BEST VALUE | 8% | +1076% | $452 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this m...
This prediction market tracks whether Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026? will occur, with $64K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by social media trends, industry insider signals, and historical patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Uganda is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $23K traded in the last 24 hours alone (36% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 06, 2026 at 10:15 UTC, the leading outcome is Uganda at 100% probability, with $64K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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