No clear favorite. 1560 leads at just 36%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1560 | 36% | +174% | $18K |
| 2 | 1580 | 29% | +245% | $16K |
| 3 | 1600 BEST VALUE | 14% | +609% | $9K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31,...
This prediction market tracks whether Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31? will occur, with $44K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
No clear favorite has emerged — 1560 leads at only 36% across 3 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $30K traded in the last 24 hours alone (68% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 04, 2026 at 22:25 UTC, the leading outcome is 1560 at 36% probability, with $44K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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