↑$900B leads at 71%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ↑$900B | 71% | +41% | $103K |
| 2 | ↓$800B | 64% | +55% | $85K |
| 3 | ↑$1.0T | 44% | +125% | $93K |
| 4 | ↑$1.5T | 41% | +144% | $82K |
| 5 | ↑$1.25T | 39% | +156% | $69K |
| 6 | ↓$750B | 32% | +208% | $99K |
| 7 | ↓$700B | 25% | +300% | $52K |
| 8 | ↑$1.75T | 20% | +413% | $63K |
| 9 | ↓$600B | 14% | +641% | $47K |
| 10 | ↑$2.0T | 11% | +809% | $103K |
| 11 | ↓$500B | 9% | +1011% | $43K |
| 12 | ↑$3.0T BEST VALUE | 6% | +1718% | $26K |
| 13 | ↑$2.5T | 6% | +1718% | $49K |
| 14 | ↑$4.0T | 3% | +2841% | $22K |
| 15 | ↑$5.0T | 3% | +3822% | $13K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31,...
This prediction market tracks whether Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31? will occur, with $950K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
Traders lean toward ↑$900B at 71%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
The market has seen $11K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 30, 2026 at 19:15 UTC, the leading outcome is ↑$900B at 71% probability, with $950K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $950K, with $11K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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