This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | 8% | $2.0M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 30, 2026 at 22:00 UTC, the leading outcome is Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? at 8% probability, with $2.0M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $2.0M, with $35K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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