The market strongly favors September 21 at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | September 21 | 100% | +0% | $1K |
| 2 | September 19 | 100% | +1% | $703 |
| 3 | September 17 | 97% | +3% | $552 |
| 4 | September 15 BEST VALUE | 80% | +26% | $2K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day"'s domestic box office gross officially surpasses "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"'s domestic box office gross of $936,662,225 by the spec...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day overtake Star Wars: The Force Awakens by...? will occur, with $18K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by social media trends, industry insider signals, and historical patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: September 21 is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours alone (66% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-21. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 12, 2026 at 09:25 UTC, the leading outcome is September 21 at 100% probability, with $18K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms