Norway leads at 83%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Norway | 83% | +20% | $9K |
| 2 | Team A BEST VALUE | 50% | +100% | - |
| 3 | Team B | 50% | +100% | - |
| 4 | Team C | 50% | +100% | - |
| 5 | Team D | 50% | +100% | - |
| 6 | Team E | 50% | +100% | - |
| 7 | Other | 50% | +100% | - |
| 8 | Spain | 5% | +1983% | $10K |
| 9 | France | 3% | +2799% | $7K |
| 10 | Argentina | 2% | +4900% | $3K |
| 11 | Cape Verde | 1% | +7043% | $3K |
| 12 | Germany | 1% | +7900% | $4K |
| 13 | Morocco | 1% | +13233% | $5K |
| 14 | United States | 1% | +14186% | $4K |
| 15 | Japan | 1% | +16567% | $12K |
| 16 | Netherlands | 1% | +16567% | $4K |
| 17 | Senegal | 1% | +16567% | $2K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to the nation who wins the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by FIFA...
This prediction market tracks whether World Cup: Fair Play Award Winner will occur, with $140K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
Traders lean toward Norway at 83%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Recent trading volume of $12K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-20. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 12, 2026 at 19:45 UTC, the leading outcome is Norway at 83% probability, with $140K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $140K, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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