No clear favorite. Lionel Messi leads at just 8%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lionel Messi | 8% | +1233% | - |
| 2 | Mikel Oyarzabal BEST VALUE | 5% | +1900% | $60 |
| 3 | Rodri | 2% | +4778% | $426 |
| 4 | Julián Álvarez | 2% | +4900% | - |
| 5 | Ferran Torres | 2% | +5028% | $120 |
| 6 | Alexis Mac Allister | 2% | +5163% | $80 |
| 7 | Leandro Paredes | 2% | +5456% | $100 |
| 8 | Enzo Fernández | 2% | +5614% | - |
| 9 | Giovani Lo Celso | 2% | +5782% | $395 |
| 10 | Nahuel Molina | 2% | +5961% | $372 |
| 11 | Valentín Barco | 2% | +5961% | $415 |
| 12 | Lautaro Martínez | 1% | +6797% | $850 |
| 13 | Dani Olmo | 1% | +7307% | $335 |
| 14 | Marc Cucurella | 1% | +8233% | $305 |
| 15 | Lamine Yamal | 1% | +8233% | $608 |
| 16 | Pedri | 1% | +8596% | $285 |
| 17 | José Manuel López | 1% | +8991% | $79 |
| 18 | Marcos Senesi | 1% | +9424% | $536 |
| 19 | Facundo Medina | 1% | +9424% | $672 |
| 20 | Marcos Llorente | 1% | +11665% | $355 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player misses a penalty in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final between Argentina and Spain. Otherwise the corresponding market will resolve "No". Only penalty k...
This prediction market tracks whether World Cup Finals: Player to Miss Penalty will occur, with $15K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
No clear favorite has emerged — Lionel Messi leads at only 8% across 20 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-19. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 17, 2026 at 03:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Lionel Messi at 8% probability, with $15K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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