Market is split — Round of 16 at 52%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Round of 16 | 52% | +94% | $17K |
| 2 | Other | 50% | +100% | - |
| 3 | Round of 32 | 16% | +525% | $9K |
| 4 | Quarterfinals | 14% | +590% | $1K |
| 5 | Semifinals | 8% | +1233% | $2K |
| 6 | Final BEST VALUE | 6% | +1624% | $1K |
| 7 | Champion | 4% | +2400% | $3K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Germany is eliminated. If Germany wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Germany is disqual...
This prediction market tracks whether World Cup: Germany Stage of Elimination will occur, with $38K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market is closely contested, with Round of 16 leading at just 52%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $17K traded in the last 24 hours alone (44% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-19. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 27, 2026 at 21:15 UTC, the leading outcome is Round of 16 at 52% probability, with $38K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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