The market strongly favors Iraq at 85%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iraq | 85% | +18% | $37K |
| 2 | Country E | 50% | +100% | - |
| 3 | Other | 50% | +100% | - |
| 4 | Senegal BEST VALUE | 11% | +809% | $223 |
| 5 | Norway | 1% | +18082% | $428 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the team that finishes last place of Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie for bottom of the grou...
This prediction market tracks whether World Cup: Group I Last Place will occur, with $38K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market shows strong consensus: Iraq is priced at 85%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $21K traded in the last 24 hours alone (55% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-20. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 17, 2026 at 14:55 UTC, the leading outcome is Iraq at 85% probability, with $38K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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