The market strongly favors Group Stage at 98%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Group Stage | 98% | +3% | $8K |
| 2 | Other BEST VALUE | 50% | +100% | - |
| 3 | Round of 16 | 1% | +18082% | $790 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Iraq is eliminated. If Iraq wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Iraq is disqualified, wi...
This prediction market tracks whether World Cup: Iraq Stage of Elimination will occur, with $410K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market shows strong consensus: Group Stage is priced at 98%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $398K traded in the last 24 hours alone (97% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-19. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 25, 2026 at 05:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Group Stage at 98% probability, with $410K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $410K, with $398K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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