Spain leads at 60%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 60% | +65% | $29K |
| 2 | France | 57% | +74% | $25K |
| 3 | England | 56% | +80% | $12K |
| 4 | Argentina | 52% | +90% | $35K |
| 5 | Portugal | 52% | +94% | $49K |
| 6 | Brazil | 48% | +108% | $8K |
| 7 | Germany | 38% | +160% | $1K |
| 8 | Netherlands | 38% | +160% | $6K |
| 9 | Belgium | 38% | +167% | $2K |
| 10 | Norway | 32% | +217% | $6K |
| 11 | Colombia | 30% | +228% | $4K |
| 12 | Mexico | 26% | +277% | $23K |
| 13 | USA | 25% | +300% | $4K |
| 14 | Switzerland | 24% | +326% | $971 |
| 15 | Turkiye | 22% | +344% | $2K |
| 16 | Japan | 22% | +344% | $11K |
| 17 | Uruguay | 21% | +376% | $357 |
| 18 | Croatia | 20% | +388% | $3K |
| 19 | Morocco | 20% | +388% | $3K |
| 20 | Ecuador BEST VALUE | 18% | +441% | $9K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup Quarterfinals. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup Quart...
This prediction market tracks whether World Cup: Nation To Reach Quarterfinals will occur, with $246K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
Traders lean toward Spain at 60%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Recent trading volume of $29K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
As of Jun 10, 2026 at 08:15 UTC, the leading outcome is Spain at 60% probability, with $246K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $246K, with $29K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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