Market is split — Spain at 44%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 44% | +125% | $9K |
| 2 | France | 42% | +138% | $8K |
| 3 | England | 34% | +190% | $19K |
| 4 | Brazil | 32% | +217% | $3K |
| 5 | Argentina | 32% | +217% | $24K |
| 6 | Portugal | 31% | +223% | $5K |
| 7 | Germany | 24% | +326% | $1K |
| 8 | Netherlands | 20% | +413% | $1K |
| 9 | Norway | 16% | +545% | $8K |
| 10 | Colombia | 15% | +567% | $540 |
| 11 | Belgium | 15% | +567% | $113 |
| 12 | Mexico | 12% | +700% | $4K |
| 13 | Morocco | 12% | +770% | $5K |
| 14 | Japan | 10% | +953% | $8K |
| 15 | Turkiye | 10% | +953% | $5K |
| 16 | Switzerland | 9% | +1011% | $3K |
| 17 | Uruguay | 9% | +1011% | $2K |
| 18 | Croatia | 8% | +1083% | $5K |
| 19 | Ecuador | 8% | +1225% | $3K |
| 20 | USA BEST VALUE | 7% | +1329% | $4K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifinals. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup Semifina...
This prediction market tracks whether World Cup: Nation To Reach Semifinals will occur, with $144K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market is closely contested, with Spain leading at just 44%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Recent trading volume of $20K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-13. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 10, 2026 at 08:15 UTC, the leading outcome is Spain at 44% probability, with $144K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $144K, with $20K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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