The market strongly favors Spain at 98%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
High Volume — $1.2M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 98% | +2% | $37K |
| 2 | Brazil | 98% | +3% | $31K |
| 3 | France | 97% | +3% | $43K |
| 4 | Portugal | 96% | +4% | $22K |
| 5 | Germany | 96% | +4% | $17K |
| 6 | Argentina | 96% | +4% | $17K |
| 7 | England | 96% | +5% | $18K |
| 8 | Belgium | 95% | +5% | $13K |
| 9 | Switzerland | 94% | +7% | $63K |
| 10 | Mexico | 92% | +8% | $17K |
| 11 | Netherlands | 90% | +12% | $14K |
| 12 | Ecuador | 88% | +13% | $9K |
| 13 | Colombia | 88% | +13% | $12K |
| 14 | Morocco | 86% | +16% | $16K |
| 15 | Uruguay | 86% | +16% | $7K |
| 16 | Canada | 86% | +17% | $27K |
| 17 | Norway | 84% | +18% | $67K |
| 18 | USA | 84% | +20% | $33K |
| 19 | Croatia | 82% | +21% | $39K |
| 20 | Austria BEST VALUE | 80% | +24% | $21K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed nation advances to the Knockout Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the Knockout...
This prediction market tracks whether World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages will occur, with $1.2M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market shows strong consensus: Spain is priced at 98%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Recent trading volume of $136K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-06-28. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 10, 2026 at 08:15 UTC, the leading outcome is Spain at 98% probability, with $1.2M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $1.2M, with $136K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms