US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens leads at 74%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens | 74% | +36% | $17K |
| 2 | US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 72% | +39% | - |
| 3 | US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Set 1 Winner | 68% | +47% | $6 |
| 4 | US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Set 2 Winner | 66% | +50% | - |
| 5 | US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 52% | +94% | $196 |
| 6 | US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 7 | US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 8 | US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | Completed Match | 50% | +102% | $756 |
| 10 | US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Match O/U 21.5 | 48% | +111% | $31 |
| 11 | US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Game Spread +/-4.5 | 48% | +111% | $14K |
| 12 | US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 46% | +115% | - |
| 13 | US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Match O/U 22.5 | 42% | +135% | - |
| 14 | US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Match O/U 23.5 | 40% | +147% | - |
| 15 | US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 34% | +194% | $483 |
| 16 | US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Set 1 O/U 10.5 BEST VALUE | 25% | +300% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market refers to the tennis match between Naomi Osaka and Elise Mertens in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Naomi Osaka' if...
This prediction market tracks whether US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens will occur, with $33K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
Traders lean toward US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens at 74%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $31K traded in the last 24 hours alone (96% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-11. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 05, 2026 at 21:15 UTC, the leading outcome is US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens at 74% probability, with $33K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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