The market strongly favors Michael Thorbjornsen at 94%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Thorbjornsen | 94% | +7% | $43K |
| 2 | Eric Cole | 9% | +958% | $6 |
| 3 | Patrick Rodgers | 9% | +958% | $167 |
| 4 | Kurt Kitayama | 8% | +1225% | $9K |
| 5 | Jordan Spieth | 6% | +1539% | $13K |
| 6 | Steven Fisk | 6% | +1567% | $17 |
| 7 | JT Poston | 6% | +1654% | $1 |
| 8 | Cameron Young BEST VALUE | 5% | +1900% | $1 |
| 9 | Michael Kim | 4% | +2122% | $445 |
| 10 | Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 4% | +2310% | $98 |
| 11 | Sam Stevens | 4% | +2369% | $149 |
| 12 | Jake Knapp | 1% | +16567% | $6K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the player that finishes Round 1 of the main tournament at the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship with the lowest cumulative score to par. In the event of a tie, t...
This prediction market tracks whether PGA Tour: FedEx St. Jude Championship First Round Leader will occur, with $74K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market shows strong consensus: Michael Thorbjornsen is priced at 94%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $73K traded in the last 24 hours alone (99% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-16. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 13, 2026 at 22:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Michael Thorbjornsen at 94% probability, with $74K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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