Market is split — Other at 46%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Other | 46% | +120% | - |
| 2 | Democrats 8-10% | 27% | +270% | $13K |
| 3 | Democrats 10-12% | 18% | +441% | $7K |
| 4 | Democrats 6-8% | 18% | +471% | $13K |
| 5 | Democrats 4-6% | 10% | +852% | $5K |
| 6 | Democrats 2-4% | 7% | +1404% | $13K |
| 7 | Democrats 12-14% BEST VALUE | 6% | +1567% | $4K |
| 8 | Republicans 0-2% | 4% | +2464% | $4K |
| 9 | Republicans 2-4% | 3% | +2885% | $29K |
| 10 | Democrats 0-2% | 2% | +6352% | $13K |
| 11 | Republicans 6%+ | 1% | +6797% | $3K |
| 12 | Republicans 4-6% | 1% | +10426% | $2K |
| 13 | Democrats 16%+ | 1% | +13233% | $2K |
| 14 | Democrats 14-16% | 1% | +16567% | $2K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for Novem...
This prediction market tracks whether 2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory will occur, with $112K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market is closely contested, with Other leading at just 46%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Recent trading volume of $11K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-03. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 28, 2026 at 05:55 UTC, the leading outcome is Other at 46% probability, with $112K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $112K, with $11K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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