The market strongly favors Mark Keough at 90%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mark Keough | 90% | +10% | $20K |
| 2 | Person A BEST VALUE | 50% | +100% | - |
| 3 | Person B | 50% | +100% | - |
| 4 | Person C | 50% | +100% | - |
| 5 | Person D | 50% | +100% | - |
| 6 | Person E | 50% | +100% | - |
| 7 | Person F | 50% | +100% | - |
| 8 | Person G | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | Person H | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | Person I | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | Person J | 50% | +100% | - |
| 12 | Person K | 50% | +100% | - |
| 13 | Person L | 50% | +100% | - |
| 14 | Person M | 50% | +100% | - |
| 15 | Person N | 50% | +100% | - |
| 16 | Person O | 50% | +100% | - |
| 17 | Person P | 50% | +100% | - |
| 18 | Person Q | 50% | +100% | - |
| 19 | Person R | 50% | +100% | - |
| 20 | Person S | 50% | +100% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
The 2026 Montgomery County Judge election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the County Judge of Montgomery County, TX. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the nex...
This prediction market tracks whether 2026 Montgomery County Judge Election Winner will occur, with $24K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Mark Keough is priced at 90%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $9K traded in the last 24 hours alone (39% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-03. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 04, 2026 at 15:45 UTC, the leading outcome is Mark Keough at 90% probability, with $24K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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