Market is split — Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 44%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
High Volume — $76.7M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 44% | +130% | $5.4M |
| 2 | Flávio Bolsonaro | 30% | +231% | $5.4M |
| 3 | Renan Santos | 8% | +1207% | $4.9M |
| 4 | Romeu Zema BEST VALUE | 7% | +1339% | $2.4M |
| 5 | Michelle Bolsonaro | 2% | +4067% | $6.0M |
| 6 | Fernando Haddad | 2% | +4155% | $4.4M |
| 7 | Camilo Santana | 2% | +5961% | $2.0M |
| 8 | Ronaldo Caiado | 2% | +6352% | $2.3M |
| 9 | Geraldo Alckmin | 1% | +10426% | $2.3M |
| 10 | Jair Bolsonaro | 1% | +11665% | $3.4M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potentia...
As of May 15, 2026 at 08:35 UTC, the leading outcome is Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 44% probability, with $76.7M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $76.7M, with $2.9M traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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