The market strongly favors AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? | 100% | +0% | $134K |
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolv...
This prediction market tracks whether AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? will occur, with $134K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market shows strong consensus: AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Recent trading volume of $12K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 02, 2026 at 00:25 UTC, the leading outcome is AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? at 100% probability, with $134K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $134K, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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