September 30 leads at 78%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | September 30 | 78% | +29% | $55K |
| 2 | September 15 | 62% | +60% | $5K |
| 3 | August 31 BEST VALUE | 26% | +285% | $43K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general pu...
This prediction market tracks whether Next Mythos-Class Model released by…? will occur, with $145K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
Traders lean toward September 30 at 78%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Recent trading volume of $14K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 21, 2026 at 06:15 UTC, the leading outcome is September 30 at 78% probability, with $145K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $145K, with $14K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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