The market strongly favors Katie Hobbs (D) at 92%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katie Hobbs (D) | 92% | +9% | $54K |
| 2 | Andy Biggs (R) | 8% | +1076% | $54K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the par...
This prediction market tracks whether Arizona Governor Election Winner will occur, with $108K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Katie Hobbs (D) is priced at 92%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Recent trading volume of $16K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-04. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 04, 2026 at 23:05 UTC, the leading outcome is Katie Hobbs (D) at 92% probability, with $108K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $108K, with $16K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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