The market strongly favors Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi at 92%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi | 92% | +9% | $6K |
| 2 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 2 Winner | 86% | +16% | - |
| 3 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 1 Winner | 86% | +17% | $5 |
| 4 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 76% | +32% | $580 |
| 5 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Game Spread +/-5.5 | 60% | +68% | $8K |
| 6 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 58% | +71% | - |
| 7 | Completed Match | 52% | +90% | - |
| 8 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% | +102% | - |
| 9 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% | +102% | - |
| 10 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% | +102% | - |
| 11 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 41% | +144% | - |
| 12 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Match O/U 21.5 | 32% | +208% | - |
| 13 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Match O/U 23.5 | 32% | +208% | - |
| 14 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Match O/U 22.5 | 30% | +233% | - |
| 15 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 22% | +355% | $316 |
| 16 | Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi Set 1 O/U 10.5 BEST VALUE | 18% | +456% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolv...
This prediction market tracks whether Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi will occur, with $14K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
The market shows strong consensus: Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi is priced at 92%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $14K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-10. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 02, 2026 at 15:15 UTC, the leading outcome is Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi at 92% probability, with $14K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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