Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov Match O/U 21.5 leads at 74%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov Match O/U 21.5 | 74% | +34% | - |
| 2 | Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov Match O/U 22.5 | 61% | +64% | $6 |
| 3 | Completed Match | 50% | +100% | $2K |
| 4 | Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% | +100% | $3 |
| 5 | Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 6 | Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 7 | Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% | +100% | $84 |
| 8 | Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 48% | +108% | $182 |
| 12 | Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov Game Spread +/-3.5 | 41% | +144% | $4K |
| 13 | Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov Match O/U 23.5 | 40% | +150% | - |
| 14 | Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov Set 2 Winner | 33% | +203% | - |
| 15 | Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov Set 1 Winner | 32% | +212% | $72 |
| 16 | Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov | 28% | +251% | $14K |
| 17 | Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov Set Handicap +/-1.5 BEST VALUE | 12% | +700% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Castelnuovo and Pavel Kotov in the Chengdu Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 21, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve...
This prediction market tracks whether Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov will occur, with $20K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
Traders lean toward Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov Match O/U 21.5 at 74%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $20K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-29. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 22, 2026 at 08:05 UTC, the leading outcome is Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov Match O/U 21.5 at 74% probability, with $20K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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