Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 O/U 8.5 leads at 78%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 78% | +27% | - |
| 2 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev Match O/U 21.5 | 58% | +72% | - |
| 3 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 56% | +77% | - |
| 4 | Completed Match | 55% | +82% | - |
| 5 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev Match O/U 22.5 | 50% | +102% | $39 |
| 6 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev Game Spread +/-2.5 | 50% | +102% | - |
| 7 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 48% | +108% | - |
| 8 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 48% | +108% | - |
| 9 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 48% | +108% | - |
| 10 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev Match O/U 23.5 | 44% | +130% | - |
| 11 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 2 Winner | 42% | +135% | - |
| 12 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 Winner | 42% | +141% | - |
| 13 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 40% | +153% | - |
| 14 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 40% | +153% | - |
| 15 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev | 36% | +174% | $20K |
| 16 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 O/U 10.5 BEST VALUE | 30% | +228% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market refers to the tennis match between Rafael Jodar and Daniil Medvedev in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 17, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Raf...
This prediction market tracks whether Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev will occur, with $20K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
Traders lean toward Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 O/U 8.5 at 78%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $20K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-24. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 16, 2026 at 19:45 UTC, the leading outcome is Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 O/U 8.5 at 78% probability, with $20K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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