HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo leads at 82%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo | 82% | +23% | $19K |
| 2 | HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 78% | +28% | - |
| 3 | HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Set 1 Winner | 74% | +35% | - |
| 4 | HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 72% | +38% | - |
| 5 | HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 64% | +55% | - |
| 6 | HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 59% | +69% | $18 |
| 7 | HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Match O/U 21.5 | 54% | +87% | $499 |
| 8 | Completed Match | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Match O/U 22.5 | 44% | +130% | - |
| 10 | HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 43% | +133% | - |
| 11 | HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Set 2 Winner | 39% | +156% | - |
| 12 | HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Match O/U 23.5 | 37% | +170% | - |
| 13 | HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 33% | +203% | $18 |
| 14 | HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 32% | +208% | - |
| 15 | HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 32% | +212% | $2 |
| 16 | HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Set Handicap +/-1.5 BEST VALUE | 10% | +953% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Gabriel Diallo in the HSBC Championships, originally scheduled for June 15, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex de M...
This prediction market tracks whether HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo will occur, with $19K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
Traders lean toward HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo at 82%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours alone (65% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-06-22. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 16, 2026 at 02:45 UTC, the leading outcome is HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo at 82% probability, with $19K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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