China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone leads at 82%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone | 82% | +23% | $11K |
| 2 | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone Set 1 Winner | 74% | +36% | - |
| 3 | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 60% | +67% | - |
| 4 | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 58% | +71% | - |
| 5 | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 57% | +75% | - |
| 6 | Completed Match | 54% | +87% | - |
| 7 | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone Set 2 Winner | 53% | +89% | - |
| 8 | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% | +102% | - |
| 9 | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% | +102% | - |
| 10 | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% | +102% | - |
| 11 | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone Match O/U 21.5 | 44% | +130% | - |
| 12 | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone Game Spread +/-5.5 | 42% | +141% | $2 |
| 13 | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone Match O/U 22.5 | 41% | +144% | - |
| 14 | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone Match O/U 23.5 | 39% | +156% | - |
| 15 | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 37% | +170% | - |
| 16 | China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone Total Sets: O/U 2.5 BEST VALUE | 32% | +208% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Mariano Navone in the China Open, originally scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex de Min...
This prediction market tracks whether China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone will occur, with $11K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
Traders lean toward China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone at 82%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $11K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-07. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 29, 2026 at 10:25 UTC, the leading outcome is China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone at 82% probability, with $11K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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