National Bank Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Marin Cilic Set 1 O/U 8.5 leads at 81%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | National Bank Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Marin Cilic Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 81% | +23% | - |
| 2 | National Bank Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Marin Cilic Match O/U 21.5 | 62% | +63% | $7 |
| 3 | National Bank Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Marin Cilic Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 54% | +85% | $17 |
| 4 | National Bank Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Marin Cilic Match O/U 22.5 | 52% | +92% | $2 |
| 5 | Completed Match | 50% | +100% | - |
| 6 | National Bank Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Marin Cilic Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 7 | National Bank Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Marin Cilic Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 8 | National Bank Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Marin Cilic Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | National Bank Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Marin Cilic Set 1 Winner | 46% | +117% | - |
| 10 | National Bank Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Marin Cilic | 46% | +120% | $10K |
| 11 | National Bank Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Marin Cilic Set 2 Winner | 45% | +122% | - |
| 12 | National Bank Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Marin Cilic Match O/U 23.5 | 45% | +122% | - |
| 13 | National Bank Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Marin Cilic Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 40% | +147% | - |
| 14 | National Bank Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Marin Cilic Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 34% | +194% | - |
| 15 | National Bank Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Marin Cilic Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 33% | +203% | - |
| 16 | National Bank Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Marin Cilic Set Handicap +/-1.5 BEST VALUE | 26% | +277% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market refers to the tennis match between Sho Shimabukuro and Marin Cilic in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 2, 2026 at 6:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sho Shimab...
This prediction market tracks whether National Bank Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Marin Cilic will occur, with $10K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by team performance data, historical matchups, and real-time injury reports.
Traders lean toward National Bank Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Marin Cilic Set 1 O/U 8.5 at 81%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $10K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-09. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 03, 2026 at 07:55 UTC, the leading outcome is National Bank Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Marin Cilic Set 1 O/U 8.5 at 81% probability, with $10K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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