No clear favorite. September 30 leads at just 21%. Many possible outcomes.
High Volume — $2.8M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | September 30 | 21% | +376% | $3K |
| 2 | June 30 BEST VALUE | 12% | +700% | $32K |
| 3 | May 31 | 3% | +2799% | $817K |
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between ma...
As of May 14, 2026 at 22:25 UTC, the leading outcome is September 30 at 21% probability, with $2.8M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $2.8M, with $48K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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