The market strongly favors No change at 86%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | No change | 86% | +17% | $56K |
| 2 | 25 bps increase BEST VALUE | 12% | +770% | $61K |
| 3 | 50+ bps increase | 1% | +8991% | $50K |
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The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). Th...
This prediction market tracks whether Bank of Japan Decision in October? will occur, with $186K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by macroeconomic indicators, central bank signals, and market expectations.
The market shows strong consensus: No change is priced at 86%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Recent trading volume of $13K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 04, 2026 at 23:05 UTC, the leading outcome is No change at 86% probability, with $186K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $186K, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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