The market strongly favors No Change at 90%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | No Change | 90% | +11% | $44K |
| 2 | Decrease | 10% | +900% | $59K |
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This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s October meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for thi...
This prediction market tracks whether Bank of Russia decision in October? will occur, with $164K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by macroeconomic indicators, central bank signals, and market expectations.
The market shows strong consensus: No Change is priced at 90%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $28K traded in the last 24 hours alone (17% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-24. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 20, 2026 at 22:05 UTC, the leading outcome is No Change at 90% probability, with $164K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $164K, with $28K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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