Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? leads at 82%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
High Volume — $3.2M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 82% | +21% | $3.2M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market cre...
This prediction market tracks whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? will occur, with $3.2M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? at 82%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
The market has seen $59K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 28, 2026 at 23:55 UTC, the leading outcome is Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? at 82% probability, with $3.2M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $3.2M, with $59K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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