Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? leads at 76%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 76% | +31% | $115K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market cre...
As of May 14, 2026 at 21:45 UTC, the leading outcome is Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? at 76% probability, with $115K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $115K, with $27K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms