A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ronaldo Caiado | 36% | $6K |
| 2 | Renan Santos | 33% | $18K |
| 3 | Romeu Zema | 12% | $3K |
| 4 | Fernando Haddad | 9% | $8K |
| 5 | Flávio Bolsonaro | 5% | $2K |
| 6 | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 3% | $2K |
| 7 | Ratinho Júnior | 2% | $89K |
| 8 | Michelle Bolsonaro | 2% | $2K |
| 9 | Jair Bolsonaro | 1% | $2K |
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As of Mar 30, 2026 at 21:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Ronaldo Caiado at 36% probability, with $140K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $140K, with $39K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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